Four positive games of the hottest pure benzene ma

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Pure benzene Market: four good games and three bad parties

the spot closing price of international pure benzene (FOB Korea) was $640/ton, up 13% from May; From May to early June, the domestic pure benzene (listed price of Sinopec) has always been maintained at about 5000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction (1) whether the fixture is convenient to use and the safe price is slightly low, breaking the Convention of international driving the domestic market. Analysis of the reasons, in addition to a large number of domestic traders spit out goods in the early stage, there are also reasons such as the depreciation of the US dollar, which led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, followed by the rise of international pure benzene, causing the value of the domestic and foreign reference market to shrink, and opening the gap between international and domestic relative figures. At present, the domestic pure benzene market is facing the game of four positive and three negative factors, and it is expected that the shock consolidation pattern will remain in the future

insiders believe that there are four major advantages to support the domestic pure benzene market

first, affected by a large number of sales by traders in the early stage, the domestic comprehensive inventory continued to decline. Affected by the bearish mentality of traders in the early stage, the inventory of domestic enterprises and ports fell sharply in May. According to statistics, the port inventory decreased from the original 180000 tons to 60000 tons in May, and the shore a hardness and thickness of the test piece measured first were higher than that of the outer disk, and there was no large import volume in the follow-up, which effectively restrained the decline of domestic pure benzene price, which was conducive to the two groups to control resources and stabilize prices, and the market gradually stabilized and warmed up

second, the production of petroleum benzene substitutes, namely hydrogenated benzene and refined benzene, has been reduced due to the high cost of crude benzene. From April to may, due to the decline in the price of petroleum benzene and the reduction of crude benzene resources, the operating rate of domestic hydrobenzene or refined benzene enterprises decreased again, which formed a certain support for the domestic pure benzene market. At the same time, because the price of toluene is relatively higher than that of pure benzene, the production line of pure benzene from toluene is shut down, reducing the domestic supply of pure benzene

third, the stability of downstream demand will form a strong support. The product market, which accounts for nearly 50% of downstream consumption, is now recovering. For example, the mainstream price of styrene is 7600 ~ 7900 yuan, and its specification is from 100kg- ⑴ 400kg/ton, a slight increase of 3% over the previous month; The operating rate of aniline in another major consumer sector has also increased significantly compared with that in May, and the domestic comprehensive operating rate is expected to increase by 8%; Other major consumer varieties with general accuracy of grade 1 or grade 2, such as cyclohexylamine and maleic anhydride, have increased demand to varying degrees, which will promote the pure benzene market

Fourthly, with the introduction of preferential export policies, the domestic demand for pure benzene will increase. With the rise of international pure benzene price, the growth of domestic pure benzene export is not excluded. Based on the balance of supply and demand, the rise of domestic pure benzene price is linked

the three negative factors in the pure benzene market are: first, affected by the recovery of the paraxylene (PX) market, the operating rate of domestic PX units increased significantly in June. If it is operated normally, it is expected to produce nearly 80000 tons of pure benzene at the same time, and the digestion of the downstream market will face great pressure. In addition, the start-up of Qilu Petrochemical Plant in June will also increase the market supply of pure benzene, forming a game of favorable factors for the market. Secondly, the demand of individual industrial chains in downstream industries has shrunk sharply. For example, the operating rate of the benzene chloride industrial chain has decreased continuously since May, which has formed a negative psychology to the market and enhanced the wait-and-see atmosphere, which is not conducive to the stability of the pure benzene market. According to statistics, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic chlorobenzene enterprises is only about 40%, and the operating rate of downstream nitrochlorobenzene has also decreased from 60% in April to about 40% in May, inhibiting some consumption of pure benzene. Thirdly, due to the volatility of the international financial market, the devaluation of currencies such as South Korea will cause the further export of pure benzene from South Korea to China, which will have an impact on the domestic market

with the introduction of national macroeconomic policies, there is no doubt that the overall situation of the chemical industry is good, but the variable factors of the chemical market still exist, and the shock is still an inevitable phenomenon at present. For example, the adjustment of gasoline prices and the commencement of new production capacity are important factors that determine the future market trend of pure benzene. Therefore, maintaining the pattern of shock consolidation of domestic pure benzene will be the main tone in the near future

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